A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
